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Showing posts from August, 2021

About those "Polls"

What does "validity" mean when used in a proper scientific or statistical fashion? Validity answers a simple question. To what extent does this study or poll actually help us understand what it says it will help us understand? A well-conducted poll, with large sample size and unbiased questions, will be Valid, in that it Adds Knowledge. A small poll, with biased questions, given at after an emotional event has zero validity, it's can't actually inform you of anything. Political polling has been an absolute nightmare, they were actually worse at predicting this last election than they were in 2016. Trump wasn't even supposed to come close. Why are they off so by so much? Well, part of it is that these polls are not Valid to be used as predictions of the actual election until maybe the last week or better yet the last day. In fact, their Validity goes up with each hour closer to the election, but you wouldn't know that from the people who talk about them weeks b